📉 FIIs Activity
FIIs bought equities worth over ₹500 crore in the cash market, signaling some return of liquidity. In F&O, they trimmed short positions as expected, indicating reduced bearishness. However, their overall positioning still remains cautious, and fresh long buildup is yet to be seen.
🌍 Global Sentiment
Global sentiment stays neutral to positive, with no signs of panic. Optimism is building as geopolitical tensions show the first signs of easing, and global markets are finding comfort in potential progress towards peace.
📰 Key Development – Ukraine Peace Talks
Trump met with Zelensky and EU leaders to discuss a peace deal with Russia. While no conclusion was reached, there are high chances that Trump, Putin, and Zelensky will meet in the coming month. A likely framework could involve US security assurances to Ukraine and Russia retaining Donbas and annexed regions. If this path holds, a ceasefire announcement could follow.
📊 Technical Outlook
This geopolitical development is boosting equities worldwide. There is around a 45% probability that Nifty closes above 24,900 today. If cash Nifty manages to close above 24,900 for two consecutive sessions, it could trigger a sharp short-covering rally and change the current market structure.
🎯 Tactical Stance
Our view: wait and watch this week. If Nifty ends the week above 24,900, the market structure turns bullish, and from there onwards, every dip should be seen as a buying opportunity with strict stop-losses