Morning Market Report – 12th September 2025

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Global Cues

  • Wall St closed at record highs as weak US jobless claims boosted Fed rate cut hopes (Sept 17).

  • Asia trades firm: Nikkei (+0.8%), Kospi (+0.7%), ASX200 (+0.5%).

  • US CPI rose 2.9% YoY, broadly in line with forecasts; 10Y yield eased to 4.02%.

  • Dollar index slipped to 97.57, Brent crude fell to $66.37/bbl, gold at $3,635/oz.

  • Rupee hit a record low of ₹88.44/$; Bitcoin rallied above $115,800.

Macro & Policy Updates

  • Trump invites Indian ministers for trade talks in Washington next week; US Commerce Secretary hopeful of a deal once Russian oil imports ease.

  • ECB kept rates unchanged, but signaled possible December cut.

  • GST reforms lower coal costs; DGTR proposes anti-dumping duty on glass fibre imports.

  • RBI bonds redeemed at 155.99% gain, exporters seek relief amid tariffs.

  • China considering credit support to settle $1 tn of local govt dues.

Domestic Market Setup

  • FIIs raised index futures longs to 10.77%, reflecting improving risk appetite.

  • Lower crude and softer US yields supportive; however, weak rupee could limit upside.

  • Strong rollovers expected into Friday’s expiry week.

Sector Themes to Watch

  • IT: Possible profit booking post Infosys buyback announcement.

  • Defense: Positive momentum from US-India talks, HAL and Bharat Forge in focus.

  • Solar & Renewables: Govt push for domestic solar cells, PM-KUSUM Phase 2, JSW Energy commissioning.

  • Capital Market: Sentiment support from Sebi not pursuing weekly expiry changes.

  • Export-linked: Gujarat Ambuja Exports benefits from corn-ethanol push; sugar/distilleries cautious.

  • Financials: Positive triggers from Canara Bank AMC filing, IREDA bond issue, strong delivery data in HDFC Bank and Adani stocks.

  • Oil & Gas: GAIL’s CGD arm listing seen as a value-unlocking theme.