AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) trades at ₹999 (+0.72% Jan 9) with strong buy technical rating above all MAs presenting dip-buy opportunity amid robust Q3 growth 24% advances. Fundamentals showcase 23% deposit growth, improving NIM trajectory despite short-term profit dip
Detailed Technical Analysis:
Price ₹999.20 +0.72%, RSI(14) 75.68 Neutral, STOCH %K 86.63 Neutral, CCI(20) 123.64 Sell, MACD Level(12,26) 34.32 Buy, ADX(14) 36.57 Neutral. MAs Strong Buy – EMA10 ₹831 Buy to SMA200 ₹681 Buy (15 Buy signals). Pivot ₹724, R1 ₹767/R2 ₹802/R3 ₹880; S1 ₹689/S2 ₹647/S3 ₹569 – comfortably above. UO(9) 56.92 Bearish, ROC(12) 2.14 Uptrend Slowing, WillR(14) -30.18 Neutral. Strategy: Buy dips to ₹950-970 targeting ₹1050-1100, SL ₹920.
Detailed Fundamental Analysis:
Q3FY26: Deposits ₹1.38L Cr +23.3% YoY, Gross Advances ₹1.25L Cr +24% YoY to ₹1.01L Cr prior. Q2FY26 Net Profit ₹561 Cr -1.8% YoY (beat est ₹520 Cr) due higher provisions but NII growth strong. ROCE 16.45%, P/E 34.10, Market Cap ₹74,633 Cr. 13% YTD loan growth, 15% deposit growth outperforms system averages. Elevated credit costs temporary; NIM trajectory improving with granular portfolio.
Reasons for Recent Downfall:
Past days decline from ₹1050+ highs – 5 consecutive days down 9.46% total (Sep data pattern repeat), delivery volume -38% shows weak participation. Broader SFB pressure, profit booking post rally, Q2 profit dip -1.8% triggered selling despite business beat. Intraday low ₹728.85 -3.24% reflects sentiment lag.
Reason for Today’s Upside Move:
Jan 9 +0.82% strong performance bucking trend – technical MAs Strong Buy alignment (15 Buy), RSI 75 momentum resumption, short-covering near ₹950 support post oversold digestion. Weekly +5.65%, monthly +15.30% confirms relative strength vs sector.
Will Rally Continue or More Downside?:
Rally likely continues (70% probability) – Strong Buy MAs, MACD Buy, above all pivots signal momentum resumption targeting ₹1050-1100. Downside only below ₹920 (SMA50 test) risking ₹880 R3 flip support. Q3 momentum favors upside
Micro & Macro View:
Micro (1-3 months): Momentum continuation entry ₹970-990 targeting ₹1050-1100, catalyst Q3 results, risk credit cost spike. Macro (6-12 months): Bullish SFB growth 20%+ AUM, NIM expansion, universal bank conversion path; target ₹1300-1400 (30-40% upside).
Upcoming News/Events & Impact:
Q3FY26 Results (late Jan): NII/advances beat → 10-15% rally, provisions miss → ₹900 test. Universal bank SFB license conversion timeline, FY26 guidance critical. RBI policy Feb cuts positive NIM.
Disclaimer & Disclosure:
Educational content only – NO investment advice/recommendation. Risk capital loss. Consult SEBI advisor. Investogainer disclaim liability. Public data, no positions.