IREDA (Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency) trades ₹136.61 (-3.24% Jan 9) deeply oversold post stellar Q3 PAT ₹585 Cr +38% YoY presenting exceptional dip-buy amid renewable financing boom. Technicals extreme capitulation RSI oversold, all MAs sell but 200DMA support ₹129-135 floor confirmed; fundamentals record Q3 revenue ₹2,140 Cr +38%, loan book ₹87,975 Cr +28% showcase unmatched execution.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
Price Action: ₹136.61 Jan 9 close (-3.24%), weekly -6.88% underperforming Sensex -2.62%, 52W ₹129-227 range low-end. RSI oversold, STOCH oversold, CCI oversold all extreme signals. Pivot 5-min ₹161.31 broken, R1 ₹164.57/R2 ₹170.4/R3 ₹173.66; S1 ₹155.48/S2 ₹152.22/S3 ₹146.39 – trading S1 testing S2. OI +11.44% falling price heavy shorts, volume intraday lows concentration. MAs bearish cascade post Q3 profit-taking despite fundamentals. Strategy: Accumulate ₹135-140 targeting ₹155-170 (R1-R2), SL ₹129 52W low.
Detailed Fundamental Analysis:
Q3FY26 Results (Jan 9): Revenue ₹2,140 Cr +38% YoY (₹1,699 Cr Q3FY25), NII +25% YoY, PAT ₹585 Cr +38% YoY (₹425 Cr prior), highest quarterly ever. Loan book ₹87,975 Cr +27.6% YoY, 9M disbursements ₹24,903 Cr +44.5%, quarterly disbursements -5.5% sequential slowdown. GNPA 3.97%, NNPA 1.97% improved, Net Worth ₹13,537 Cr +38%. OPM 91.98%, NPM 27.59% stellar. Disbursements ₹9,860 Cr +32% YoY. Valuation: P/B attractive post correction, ROE strong, ₹3,000 Cr QIP planned.
Reasons for Recent Downfall:
Q3 Profit-taking cascade Jan 9 -6.88% weekly despite PAT beat: disbursements -5.5% QoQ, sanctions halved QoQ triggered growth slowdown fears. FII selling +11.44% OI buildup short positioning, valuation concerns post 166% YTD run-up, relative weakness vs Sensex. Technical MA breakdown amplified selling.
Will Rally Continue or More Downside?:
Bounce resumption likely post capitulation – oversold extremes + Q3 record PAT ₹585 Cr justify premium. Holds S2 ₹152 → targets ₹164-170 R1-R2. Downside risk ₹146 S3 if QIP dilution fears spike but 65% upside probability next week on short-covering.
Micro & Macro View:
Micro (1-3 months): Oversold reversal entry ₹135-140 targeting ₹155-170, catalyst QIP clarity. Macro (6-12 months): Explosive renewable financing ₹3L Cr+ AUM FY27, target ₹250-300 (+80-120%). Tailwinds: ₹10L Cr RE capacity addition, PLI schemes.
Upcoming News/Events & Impact:
₹3,000 Cr QIP Timeline (Q4FY26): Dilution concern short-term -5-10% but capacity ₹1.5L Cr loan book enables 25%+ growth. FY26 Guidance RE sanctions pipeline. Union Budget Feb RE capex allocation ₹20K+ Cr positive. Q4 Results May disbursement acceleration key.
Disclaimer & Disclosure:
Educational exclusively – NO advice/recommendation. High risk capital loss. SEBI advisor mandatory. Investogainer disclaim liability. Public data Jan 11, 2026; no positions.