Prepared by: Investogainer Research | SEBI Registered Research Analyst:
UltraTech Cement executed strong intraday bounce from ₹11,852 support to ₹12,367 (+4.3%) led by cement dealer price hikes across regions amid infra budget anticipation. Technical structure confirms bullish continuation above pivot ₹11,419 with capacity expansion trajectory supporting premium valuation. Dealer hikes provide immediate margin catalyst alongside structural infra positioning.
Detailed Technical Analysis:
CMP ₹12,367 trades decisively above 5-min pivot ₹11,419 with intraday range ₹11,852-12,367 confirming bullish engulfing candle above immediate resistance ₹11,485-11,551 cluster. Key supports ₹11,353 (S1), ₹11,287 (S2), ₹11,221 (S3) validate structural uptrend with 20DMA ₹11,682 recently crossed higher alongside MA9 ₹11,710 confirming momentum shift. RSI 57-59 zone reflects healthy bullish positioning while StochRSI 1.00 signals extreme oversold bounce completion; MACD +18-22 bullish crossover alongside Williams %R -3 confirms extension potential targeting R3 ₹11,617 then psychological ₹12,500-12,800 extension. F&O OI buildup at 12,200CE/12,500CE strikes validates institutional positioning with PCR 0.59 favoring bulls.
Fundamental Analysis:
Q3FY25 delivered ₹171,933 Cr revenue (+3% YoY) on 28.81MT volume (+11%) despite ₹964/tonne realization pressure (-20% YoY); EBITDA ₹28,871 Cr surprised positively at 16.8% margins while PAT ₹14,735 Cr declined 17% YoY but +79% QoQ reflecting seasonal recovery. Capacity 171MT operates 73% utilization with Patliputra 2.3MTPA commissioning underway; P/E 45x premium justified by 20% volume CAGR target, ROCE trajectory, and 59% promoter holding. Trading 5x book value reflects market leadership premium amid ₹11L Cr infra pipeline.
Micro & Macro View:
Micro View: Intraday rally validates ₹11,852 structural support bounce above 20DMA with dealer price hikes (+₹200-300/tonne) providing 3-5% near-term margin catalyst; sustain above S1 ₹11,353 targets ₹12,800 extension.
Macro View: Cement capacity leader capturing ₹11 lakh crore infra supercycle with grey cement dominance, white cement expansion, and 20% EBITDA/tonne improvement trajectory positioning ₹15,000+ FY28 destination amid urbanization tailwinds.
Today’s Rally Analysis:
Subah se 4.3% rally from open ₹12,058 to high ₹12,367 triggered by multi-state cement dealer price hikes after prolonged ₹200-300/tonne correction, sparking sector rotation (HeidelbergCement +4.1%, Dalmia +3.2%, ACC +2.8%). UltraTech led gains with F&O open interest surge at 12,200-12,500 strikes alongside 1.35% spot momentum confirming institutional positioning ahead of Union Budget infra allocation expectations.
Key News Events & Impact:
Dealer Price Hikes (Positive): Multi-state ₹200-300/tonne increases boost margins 3-5%; immediate +4% reaction validates sensitivity.
Q3FY25 Results (Jan 22): Volume beat offset realization miss; EBITDA surprise positive for guidance reset.
Capacity Expansion: 171MT achieved; Patliputra 2.3MTPA Q4 commissioning adds 1.3% capacity (+ve structural).
F&O Positioning: PCR 0.59 with CE buildup signals bullish institutional conviction.
Budget Tailwinds: Infra allocation anticipation favors cement leaders.
Disclaimer & Disclosure:
Educational analysis only – constitutes no investment advice whatsoever. Investogainer Research holds no position in UltraTech Cement Ltd. All data sourced publicly as of January 16, 2026. Past performance guarantees no future results.