1️⃣ FII Activity & Derivatives Data
FIIs have sold ₹8,200+ crore worth of equities in the cash segment, reflecting aggressive selling pressure.
In the F&O segment:
Increased net index short positions
Increased net index call short positions
Data indicators:
Overall PCR at 0.95 – slightly bearish bias
FII Long/Short Ratio (Index Futures) at 15 – indicates strong bearish positioning
Overall, derivatives data clearly suggests a bearish undertone.
2️⃣ Global Market Sentiment
Global markets are recovering from recent lows as the US–Iran conflict shows signs of cooling.
Geopolitical impact appears largely factored into the recent correction
Panic has reduced compared to previous sessions
However, sentiment remains fragile and headline-sensitive.
3️⃣ Technical View – Short-Term Strength Emerging
On the charts:
Nifty is showing short-term strength, particularly on the 15-minute timeframe, where MACD indicates a positive divergence.
Bank Nifty is reflecting a similar short-term recovery pattern.
Despite this, strong bearish FII positioning suggests limited upside sustainability.
4️⃣ Key Levels to Watch
Nifty
Support: 24,400
Resistance: 24,625 – 24,900
Bank Nifty
Support: 58,400
Resistance: 59,200 – 59,500
5️⃣ Our Stance
Given heavy FII bearish positioning and ongoing geopolitical sensitivity:
Remain in wait-and-watch mode until 14th March
Closely monitor geopolitical developments
Avoid aggressive long positions
Focus on capital preservation
Strategy: Trade light, stay alert, and prioritize risk management.