Detailed Technical Analysis
Daily chart depicts range-bound consolidation post-2-day upside bounce from ₹75.61 lows, hammer at ₹77.74 PP ₹78.17 support (50-SMA ₹78.50 proximity + 38.2% Fib retracement) with volume balance signaling accumulation amid downtrend pause. Mixed MAs (short-term 5/10 SMA bullish ₹78.08-78.50, longer 20/50/200 bearish ₹79+), EMAs neutral; RSI(14) 56.12 Buy, STOCH(20,3) 88.50 overbought relief, MACD -0.50 outperform contracting. Pivot: PP ₹78.17/R1 ₹79.48/R2 ₹80.88/R3 ₹82.19, S1 ₹76.77/S2 ₹75.61/S3 ₹74.21. CCI 129.69 outperform, ROC +6.11 Buy; short target R1 ₹79.48 (2%), medium R2 ₹80.88 (4%), long ₹86.72 ATH (12%).
Detailed Fundamental Analysis
NMDC P/E 9.5x undervalued vs peers, FY26 production 53.15 MT (+21% YoY record), sales 50.23 MT (+13%), Mar’26 5.35 MT prod (+51% YoY)/5.90 MT sales (+40%); Revenue est ₹20,000 Cr+, PAT ₹6,500 Cr, ROE 18% stable, Dividend Yield 4.5% (₹10/share). Iron ore monopoly Chhattisgarh/Karnataka (18% domestic excl captive), low-cost producer ₹1,200/t; capex ₹2,000 Cr Nagarnar Phase-2, diamond exploration. Risks: auction pricing volatility, China demand; strengths: 42 MT FY22 base scaled 25%.
News & Events Impact
Mar’26 record volumes 53 MT FY26 triggered +3% rally validating execution; Chhattisgarh auctions 130,800 t (Feb ’26) +2% reaction Fe 60-67% grades. Bailadila new mine inauguration +4% intraday; negative: China steel weakness trimmed 1.5%.
Micro & Macro Events
Micro: Q4FY26 results May, dividend, Nagarnar ramp-up, Chhattisgarh auctions; macro: China stimulus (steel demand), monsoon mining ops, Budget infra ₹11 lakh Cr steel linkage.
Global Cues & War Impact
War spikes iron ore freight costs 10-15% via crude/oil but NMDC domestic focus (FOB basis auctions) insulates vs exporters; China slowdown >30 MT FY26 pressure offset by domestic infra.
Buy Levels & Investment Views
Short-term: ₹76.77-78.17 (S1-PP) tgt R1 ₹79.48 SL ₹75.61; medium-term: ₹74.21-76.77 to R2 ₹80.88 SL ₹74.21; long-term: <₹75 to ₹90 SL ₹70. Bullish short/medium (RSI/STOCH outperform), very bullish long (production ramp).
Rally Sustainability
Range rally post-2D up 65% sustainable >PP ₹78.17 close + STOCH relief; bounce-back risk 35% if <S1 ₹76.77 amid China drag, but volumes support continuation.
Buy Recommendation
YES at ₹78 levels for 6-18 months: record 53 MT FY26 (+21%), low P/E 9.5x, dividend 4.5%, domestic monopoly, auction pricing edge. SL ₹75.61.
Detailed Disclaimer (NMDC)
Educational only, no investment advice; capital loss risk high. SEBI advisor mandatory.
Conflict Disclosure (NMDC)
No holdings/compensations as of April 07, 2026.