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📈 Morning Market Report – 18th Sept 2025

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🌏 Global Cues

  • US Markets: S&P -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.33% – slipped as Powell struck a hawkish tone post-Fed decision.

  • Fed Policy: First rate cut of 2025 delivered. However, Powell clarified it’s not the start of an aggressive cutting cycle.

    • Fed projects 2 more cuts in 2025 and only 1 in 2026 (vs market’s 2-3 cut expectation).

  • US 10Y Yield: ↑ 4 bps to 4.07% (reflecting cautious Fed stance).

  • Brent Crude: $68 – supportive for India’s macros.

  • Dollar Index: 97 – stable.

  • Key Event: Bank of England policy outcome due today.

🏦 Domestic Setup

  • GIFT Nifty: +86 pts at 25,500 → indicating a gap-up opening of 100+ pts.

  • Market Mood: Positive, supported by crude softness and strong OMC outlook, though US yields could cap sharp upside.

🔑 Spot Index Levels

  • Nifty 50: Support 25,300 / 25,150 | Resistance 25,500 / 25,600

  • Bank Nifty: Support 55,300 / 55,000 | Resistance 55,800 / 56,000

  • Nifty Fin Services: Support 26,500 / 26,400 | Resistance 26,700 / 26,800

  • Sensex: Support 82,000 / 81,800 | Resistance 82,600 / 82,800

📊 Futures Key Levels

  • Nifty Futures: Support 25,250 | Resistance 25,650

  • Bank Nifty Futures: Support 55,200 | Resistance 56,200

🛢️ Sector Spotlight – Oil & Gas (Nomura)

  • Crude Prices: Falling on rising OPEC+ supplies.

  • FX Impact: INR depreciation could pressure margins for OMCs & CGDs.

  • Refining Margins: Lower Singapore GRMs unlikely to hit Indian refiners significantly.

  • OMCs: Fuel marketing margins remain healthy (>₹6/litre) despite cooling from Q1FY26 highs.

    • Nomura maintains Buy on HPCL, BPCL, IOCL.

    • BPCL best placed among peers.

  • Gas Value Chain:

    • Lower LNG prices to benefit Petronet LNG (PLNG) & Gujarat Gas.

    • GAIL, MGL, IGL also likely beneficiaries of cheaper LNG feedstock.

📌 Implication: The Oil & Gas sector offers tactical opportunities. Strong OMC marketing margins and supportive LNG trends offset FX risks.

📌 Market Outlook

India is set for a gap-up start with positive bias. Key drivers today:

  1. Global Policy Watch: BOE decision and US yields.

  2. Crude & LNG Dynamics: Positive for OMCs and CGDs.

  3. Sector Rotation: Banks may see profit-taking post Fed stance, while OMCs & gas names could attract fresh buying.

Trading Bias: Buy-on-dips strategy in Nifty above 25,300 support. Watch 25,500/25,600 as supply zones. Bank Nifty support at 55,300 remains critical.