Union Bank of India – Analysis
Technical View (Daily Chart – Detailed)
Union Bank has shown a strong reversal signal in the latest session. The stock moved from a low of ₹127.90 to close near ₹132.50, forming a bullish green candle.
Price & Moving Averages:
The stock has closed above the 100-DMA, which is a short-term positive signal.
However, it still trades below the 50-DMA and 200-DMA, indicating that medium-term trend confirmation will come only above ₹136–140 levels.
Parabolic SAR: Dots have shifted below the price → indicates a fresh bullish trend.
RSI (14): Currently at 51, which is neutral. This suggests there is room for further upside before becoming overbought. A move above 60 will strengthen bullish momentum.
MACD: Still in negative territory but showing convergence, signaling that bearish momentum is fading and a bullish crossover may occur soon.
Chart Formation: The stock is making higher lows, indicating base building and the possibility of a sustainable uptrend.
Key Levels:
Support: ₹128–130, below which ₹124 is strong support.
Resistance: ₹136–140 (crucial breakout zone). A breakout above this can open targets of ₹148–150.
Summary: Technically, Union Bank is in a short-term positive reversal phase. Sustaining above ₹128 keeps the trend positive, with potential upside towards ₹136–140 and beyond.
Fundamental View
Union Bank is one of the leading PSU banks with improving asset quality and steady loan growth.
Recent quarters have shown an improvement in NIMs, CASA deposits, and lower NPAs.
However, PSU banks remain sensitive to bond yields, government borrowing, and credit cost trends.
Micro View (Stock-Specific)
Stock has underperformed in recent weeks but is now showing early signs of recovery.
Valuation remains attractive compared to private banks, making it favorable for medium-term investors.
Technical reversal supports near-term upside.
Macro View (Sector & Economy)
Indian banking sector is supported by strong credit growth, stable inflation, and healthy demand across retail and corporate segments.
PSU bank performance is closely linked to economic growth, government policies, and RBI stance.
Global macro factors like US Fed rate cuts and bond yields will also impact PSU banks.
Upcoming Events & Impact
Q2 FY26 Earnings (Oct 2025): Likely to show credit growth but margins may remain under pressure due to higher cost of funds. Positive earnings surprise can support stock rally.
RBI Policy (Oct 2025): Any dovish stance or rate cut can be highly positive for banks.
Government Capital Infusion (if any): Can boost PSU banks’ balance sheets.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a trading recommendation.
Disclosure
We do not hold any personal or family position in Union Bank of India. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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