Company Overview
India Cements Ltd, established 1946, operates 14.5 MTPA cement capacity across South India (Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana), focusing on OPC/PPC grades for retail/institutional segments; now UltraTech Cement subsidiary post ₹7,000 Cr acquisition (55.5% stake approval Dec 2024), enabling synergies in distribution, costs, and scale amid 7% cement demand CAGR FY26-28. FY25 revenue ₹4,500 Cr, market cap ₹13,000 Cr; debt reduced to ₹886 Cr via stake sale.
Daily Technical Analysis
India Cements (NSE: INDIACEM) closed at ₹411.90 on Dec 5, 2025 (BSE depth), down from recent ₹430 ATH (Oct 29), with support cluster ₹399-₹405 (S1-S2), pivot ₹405, resistance ₹412-₹419 (R1-R3). Indicators mixed-bullish shift: RSI neutral-weekly (bullish monthly), MACD mildly bearish (weekly)/bullish (monthly), Bollinger Bands bullish-weekly/mildly bullish-monthly, MAs bullish-daily; volume 6.8M shares (above avg), seasonality +0.89% Dec avg (11/16 positive years). Oversold bounce potential if holds ₹405, breakdown risks ₹389.
Fundamental Analysis
Market cap ₹13,000 Cr, TTM P/E 364.84 (high due to low EPS ₹1.13), P/B 1.26, P/S 3.01; Q2FY26 (Sep 2025): Revenue ₹1,117 Cr (+9% QoQ, +9% YoY), PAT ₹8.81 Cr (vs -₹339 Cr YoY, -₹132 Cr QoQ), EBITDA margin improved via 12% volume surge and pricing; debt/equity low post UltraTech deal, capacity util 57%. 10Y return 399% outperforms Sensex; intrinsic supports ₹450-₹500 on synergies.
Micro and Macro Views:
Micro View (Short-Term: 1-3 Months)
Bullish technicals (MAs, Bollinger) + Q2 profit turnaround signal bounce to ₹419-₹430 if ₹405 holds; VWAP crossover positive, but high P/E warns fragility—5% downside to ₹389 possible on weak volumes; tactical buy above ₹412, SL ₹405.
Macro View (Long-Term: 6-24 Months)
UltraTech integration unlocks cost savings/scale, 7% cement demand (infra/housing), festive recovery; offsets cyclical risks—target ₹500+ (20-25% upside), bull ₹550 on 10% volume growth.
Reasons for Recent Fall:
Stock corrected 10-15% from ₹430 Oct peak on legacy Q3FY25 loss ₹428 Cr (EBITDA -₹188 Cr, revenue -16.5% YoY) from weak demand/pricing pre-UltraTech, election slowdowns, high costs; post-acquisition volatility amid integration, sector GST cut pressures (28%→18%, ~7-8% price dip), and broader cement oversupply—overridden by Q2 recovery.
Disclaimer and Disclosure:
This analysis is provided strictly for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, financial, trading, or any other form of advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully before investing. The views expressed are personal and based on publicly available information. Investogainer Research, its proprietor Deepak Pal (SEBI Registered Research Analyst – INH000012856, BSE Enlistment No. 5845), employees, or associates hold no position in India Cements as of this report and have no material conflict of interest. No guarantee of profits or protection against losses is implied. Clients/investors are advised to consult their independent financial advisor, conduct their own due diligence, and consider their risk appetite before making any investment decisions. SEBI registration does not imply accuracy or guarantee of returns.