1️⃣ FII Activity & Derivatives Positioning
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) sold ₹4,000+ crore worth of equities in the cash market, continuing the selling trend.
In the F&O segment, they have:
Slightly reduced net index short positions in futures
Significantly reduced net index call shorts
Reduced net index put long positions
Key indicators:
PCR: Around 1.0
FII Long–Short Ratio (Index Futures): ~14.5%, slightly better than yesterday.
Although there is some reduction in bearish positions, overall FII positioning still remains on the negative side.
2️⃣ Global Market Cues 🌍
Global sentiment has improved again after Donald Trump indicated that the Iran conflict may not last more than a few days.
Because of this development:
Crude oil prices corrected sharply
WTI crude is trading near $53, providing major relief.
Lower crude prices are positive for global economies and emerging markets like India, which depend heavily on oil imports.
3️⃣ Market Outlook
With easing geopolitical tension and falling crude prices, global markets have stabilized, and overall sentiment has turned cautiously positive.
However, due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, markets may remain range-bound and move into a consolidation phase until there is more clarity on the conflict situation.
4️⃣ Technical View & Key Levels to Watch 📉
Nifty
Support: 24,050
Resistance: 24,450
Bank Nifty
Support: 56,300
Resistance: 57,200 – 57,500
On hourly charts, both Nifty and Bank Nifty look relatively strong, suggesting short-term stability.
However, on the daily timeframe, the structure still appears weak, indicating that the broader trend remains sideways to slightly negative.
5️⃣ Our Stance
Our approach remains Wait & Watch.
Markets are still largely influenced by geopolitical developments, and clarity will only emerge once the conflict situation stabilizes.
Strategy:
Avoid aggressive positional trades
Intraday trading can be done with strict stop losses
Better investment opportunities may emerge during the upcoming earnings season