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📌 MARKET OUTLOOK – 1st AUGUST 2025 (FRIDAY)

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🔁 What Happened Today (31st July)

Nifty opened with a sharp gap-down, dropping nearly 220 points from yesterday’s close amid global tariff concerns and weak Asian cues. After testing a low of 24,761, it recovered sharply — driven by intraday short covering — but profit booking near 24,990 pushed it back toward the lows. The index finally closed at 24,768, nearly 200 points below its day’s high.

Nifty’s Range:
🔻 Low – 24,761
🔺 High – 24,991
📍 Close – 24,768

BankNifty showed a similar whipsaw pattern. It opened weak, bounced sharply intraday, but again slipped from the highs to close at 55,962, marginally in the red.

BankNifty’s Range:
🔻 Low – 55,547
🔺 High – 56,406
📍 Close – 55,962

📉 Technical Indicators

  • Nifty RSI (14): 45 – neutral to weak zone

  • MACD: Still in negative territory, no bullish crossover

  • BankNifty RSI (14): 42 – mild oversold zone

  • MACD: Deeply negative and diverging further

Both indices are struggling for momentum. No technical strength yet, despite the intraday recovery.

🔎 Option Chain Analysis – Expiry Setup

Nifty (Weekly Expiry):

  • Highest Call OI: 25,000 & 25,200

  • Highest Put OI: 24,600 & 24,650
    📌 Expiry Range: 24,650 – 25,000
    Writers aggressively holding both ends — potential expiry tug-of-war.

BankNifty (Monthly Expiry):

  • Highest Call OI: 56,600

  • Highest Put OI: 55,800 & 56,200
    📌 Range: 55,800 – 56,600
    Unless a breakout happens, this range may hold for a while.

📊 Key Levels for Tomorrow – 1st August

Nifty:

  • 🔹 Pivot – 24,786

  • 🔼 Resistance – 24,930 / 25,100

  • 🔽 Support – 24,650 / 24,550

BankNifty:

  • 🔹 Pivot – 55,971

  • 🔼 Resistance – 56,400 / 56,600

  • 🔽 Support – 55,800 / 55,500

Expect volatility around these levels with expiry pressures still in play.

🗓️ What August Will Bring

  • RBI Monetary Policy, auto sales, and key Q1 earnings next week

  • Global watch on tariff escalation, crude volatility, and Fed remarks

  • FIIs were net sellers in July; their August trend could swing sentiment

🔚 Final Word

Markets remain directionless in the short-term, with heavy option activity capping both upside and downside. Indicators are not favoring aggressive longs yet. Any move above 25,000 (Nifty) or 56,600 (BankNifty) may trigger short-covering, while breaks below 24,650 / 55,800 can resume weakness.

Focus on momentum confirmation — avoid pre-guessing. Stay selective, stay light.