Technical Outlook (Daily Chart)
Trend & Moving Averages: The stock is in a short-term downtrend. Price is below key EMAs (20, 55, and 100-day). The 200-day EMA (gold line) is acting as a crucial support near ₹163.
Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: Positioned above the candles—bearish signal.
MACD: Negative, with a declining histogram—momentum remains weak.
RSI: Around 36, nearing oversold by but not there yet—suggesting limited bounce potential.
Support & Resistance:
Support: ₹163–162 (200-day EMA zone).
Resistance: ₹170–175 (EMA cluster region).
Short-Term View: Sideways to slightly bearish; range likely between ₹162–175. A break below ₹162 could see extended decline.
Long-Term View: Consolidation near long-term support; a sustained break above ₹175 + improving fundamentals may trigger a rally toward ₹185–190.
Fundamental Snapshot:
Valuation:
P/E Ratio 13, Price-to-Book 1.09×.
ROE 11–12%, ROCE 7–8%.
Dividend Yield ~0.9%, recently declared ₹1.50/share (Record date: 14 Aug 2025).
- Business Metrics:
Market cap ~₹26–32k crore.
Total deposits grew ~11.8% YoY to ₹1.51 lakh crore; advances rose similarly. - Fundamental Risk:
Q1 FY26 net profit dropped 65% YoY to ₹372 crore due to stress in microfinance book. Provisions surged (119%) and slippages were high.
Micro & Macro Factors:
Micro View:
Heavy exposure to microfinance unit (EEB), which is stressed—affecting profitability.
Strong deposit growth and network—including rural focus—provide operational strength.
Macro View:
RBI guardrails are limiting rapid growth in micro-lending.
Economic slowdown, monsoon uncertainties, and rural income pressure may affect lending recovery prospects.
Broader banking sector risks like rising credit costs and regulatory pressure also apply.
Upcoming Events & Impact:
Dividend Record Date: 14 August 2025 — may drive some buying interest.
Annual General Meeting (AGM): Scheduled for 21 August 2025.
Q2 FY26 Earnings Release (Projected): October 2025 — critical to gauge microfinance recovery trend.
Historical Breakout: In June, stock broke a 1-month consolidation with technical buy-on-dips recommendation toward ₹200–230.
View of BANDHANBANK:
Based on the daily chart, the stock has been in a continuous decline for the past two sessions. In the short term, the structure still appears bearish. However, the daily chart also shows the stock taking strong support at its 200-day moving average, around the ₹160.00–₹162.00 zone. This support is significant because the stock has been able to hold these levels.
Currently, the stock is trading within the range of the 14-day EMA and the 200-day moving average. From a short-term perspective, the chart suggests a sell-on-rise strategy unless the stock manages to sustain above the ₹170 level.
From a long-term view, any dips towards the support zone could be seen as a buying opportunity. If the stock continues to hold these levels, it is likely to resume its previous uptrend. In such a case, the stock could reach the ₹175–₹180 range within the next 6–9 months, and if it sustains above that, it may even attempt to break the ₹200 level.
Warning, Disclaimer & Disclosure:
Warning:
Investing in stocks involves market risk. Bandhan Bank’s earnings and price are highly sensitive to asset quality, especially microfinance stress. Use disciplined risk management.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is intended solely for educational and informational purposes and is not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclosure:
I am a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (INH000012856) with BSE membership (Code: 5845). I do not hold any position in Bandhan Bank at the time of writing. This report is based purely on publicly available data and analysis.
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