Graphite India Ltd. (GRAPHITE) Comprehensive Equity Report
Graphite India Ltd., graphite electrodes/refractories leader (99% capacity utilization Q2), trades ₹542-626 as of Feb 8, 2026, post-Q2 beat; upcoming Q3 board meeting Feb 9. Report covers technicals, fundamentals, events, post-results analysis.
Detailed Technical Rationale
Current (Daily): Strong Sell (RSI 22.75 Oversold, CCI -108 Sell, Williams -100 Oversold, ATR 6.13 low vol, ADX 15.9 weak trend); all 12 MAs Sell (MA5 ₹542 Sell). 5-min Pivot: ₹542, R1 ₹551–R2 ₹564–R3 ₹573; S1 ₹529–S2 ₹520–S3 ₹507—oversold bounce setup near S3. Trend: Bearish symmetrical triangle (symmetric, breakout >₹650 to ₹980 tgt 4-6 mo), accumulation ₹480-650; enter long ₹520-529 (S2/S1) target ₹551-573 (R1-R3, 8-10%), SL ₹507 (S3)
Fundamental Analysis
Q2 FY26: Sales ₹729 Cr (+13.4% YoY), EBITDA ₹132 Cr (margin dip), PAT ₹76 Cr (vs ₹133 Cr Q1); 9M PAT ₹195 Cr (-75.75% Q3 prior?); net cash ₹3,921 Cr robust, 99% utilization (vs 84% YoY). Growth: Infra capex (₹10L Cr budget), EAF steel shift (carbon neutral), exports; EV/EBITDA 6x FY24E ₹385 PT. Score: Price Expensive, Growth Poor, Quality Good, Mgmt Poor; steel demand key.
Result Review (Q3 Upcoming Feb 9)
Pre-Expect: Q3 sales ~₹700-750 Cr (stable realizations), EBITDA ₹130-140 Cr, PAT positive ₹50-80 Cr; trading window closed till Feb 12. Actual Outlook: Inline on volumes (99% util), cash buffer cushions; FY26 guidance infra/EAF positive. Management: K K Bangur optimistic Q2 volumes. Impact: Beat (PAT >₹80 Cr) → ₹650 breakout (₹980 tgt); inline → range ₹520-573; miss → ₹480 (symmetric support).
News Events & Impact
Board Feb 9 Q3/9M results; Q2 turnaround (util 99%); historical Q3 loss ₹20 Cr (prior FY25)—watch PAT flip. Stock radar: Symmetric triangle, accumulate. Impact: Positive results rally 10-15% ₹650+; negative test ₹480.
Micro & Macro Events
Micro: Q3 Feb 9 (window reopen Feb 12), utilization/guidance; volatility pre-event (ATR 6). Entry ₹520-529 dips.
Macro: Steel capex (budget ₹10L Cr), EAF green shift, exports; risks China dumping. Infra boom positive.
Volatility & Entry Levels
High pre-Q3 vol (symmetric pattern); entry long ₹520-529 (S2/S1 oversold) target ₹573-650 (R3/breakout, 15-25%), SL ₹507; volatility 5-10% post-results favors bounce on beat.
Disclaimer & Disclosure (Result Basis)
Educational; Q2 beat positive but growth poor—valuation risks. No advice; SEBI-RA, no GRAPHITE holdings (Feb 8). Public data.