📉 FIIs Activity
FIIs sold around ₹5,000 crore worth of equities in the cash market. In the F&O segment, they added fresh index short positions despite heavy short covering in the previous session. Overall positioning remains bearish.
🌍 Global Sentiment
Global markets got a boost after news emerged that Putin and Trump will meet soon to discuss a Ukraine peace deal. This has created positive momentum in global equities.
📊 Key Development – MSCI Rebalancing
MSCI has announced its latest index rebalancing, cutting India’s weightage by about 2–2.5%. This could trigger an estimated $20–25 billion outflow. I believe nearly 70% of this selling has already been absorbed in the past month.
📈 Technical Outlook – Nifty
Given the MSCI weightage cut and FIIs’ aggressive short positions, the probability of Nifty crossing 24,900 in the near term is low. A sustainable move above 24,900 is only likely if FIIs turn net buyers.
🎯 Tactical View
Stay cautious and avoid getting trapped in FOMO buying during short-covering rallies. Wait for Nifty to clear the key 24,900 resistance before turning aggressive. Focus on fundamentally strong stocks with strict stop-loss discipline.
