FIIs Activity Check
FIIs have sold over ₹3,500 crore worth of equities in the cash market. At the same time, they have built fresh net index short positions in the F&O segment, particularly in Nifty — a signal of cautious positioning ahead of expiry.
Global Cues
Global sentiment has turned positive after the US signed trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines. There is growing optimism that more deals with major economies could be finalized soon, which would further uplift global equity sentiment.
Earnings & Market Mood
So far, quarterly results have not fully met market expectations. This, combined with FII selling, is likely to keep the market in a range-bound mode until expiry.
Key Trigger Ahead
In August, MSCI will announce its index rebalancing. Given the sharp rally in Chinese markets, there is a possibility of India’s weightage being reduced — which could explain the recent FII outflows. A lower weightage would lead to passive fund outflows from Indian equities.
Tactical Approach
Our stance remains cautious. Select quality stocks with strong fundamentals and stick to disciplined risk management with tight stop losses. Avoid chasing momentum blindly in this environment.
