BUY : BAJFINANCE31JUL25FUT( BAJFINANCE ) [53253]

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  1. Strong Support Zone at ₹6,700–6,800

    • The stock has formed a reliable base in the ₹6,700–6,800 zone and is showing signs of reversal with demand emerging.

  2. Technical Oversold Rebound

    • Indicators like RSI and CCI were recently in oversold territory and are now rebounding — early signs of a trend reversal.

  3. Bollinger Band Squeeze Breakout Possible

    • Price action is consolidating in a narrow range; a breakout on either side could be sharp — technical bias is upward.

  4. Resilient Business Model

    • Bajaj Finance operates one of the strongest NBFC models with diversified retail lending, EMI financing, and digital platforms.

  5. Loan Growth Guidance Maintained

    • Management in Q4 FY25 reiterated 25–27% AUM growth guidance despite macro concerns, reflecting strong demand visibility.

  6. Digital Ecosystem Expansion (Bajaj Finserv App)

    • Focus on building a digital ecosystem through its app-based platform is expected to unlock long-term customer engagement and cost efficiency.

  7. Strong Asset Quality

    • GNPA remains under control at ~0.87%, with healthy provisioning buffers — best-in-class among NBFCs.

  8. High Institutional Holding

    • Over 50% of the stock is held by DIIs and FIIs, showcasing confidence from long-term investors.

  9. Valuation De-rating May Reverse

    • After a ~15% correction from 52-week highs, valuations are reasonable again for a long-term growth compounder.

  10. Positive Trigger – Likely RBI Rate Cuts

  • With inflation under control, any RBI rate cut in H2 FY26 would benefit lending businesses like Bajaj Finance through lower cost of funds.